It may only be my imagination but each time I saw the “debt clock” in New York City it appeared to be notching up numbers faster than before. Now it has been reported that the clock had stopped because it ran out of digits! Small wonder then, that in 21 years of dealing with American businesses I have never seen them as nervous and unsure then at this present moment. That country’s national debt is now in excess of a mind boggling 10 trillion dollars. And in very much the same way as personal debt is a burden for the children of the family, national debt means that future generations of Americans may have to pay for the excesses of the last 15 years.
Pretty much anything at the macro level can be understood in terms of the microcosm of a household. So consider a family burdened with debt and trying to stay afloat. If the household income is not sufficient to meet loan repayments, then it may be forced to reduce spending. This means not just scrimping and scrounging but also postponing necessary acquisitions of assets. So, for example, the family may have to defer buying a new car even though the old one breaks down frequently. In national terms this could translate into higher taxes, creaky infrastructure and lower standards of health care and other forms of social security. Where a Government differs from families however, is in its ability to pursue deficit financing, which is only a fancy term for printing more currency. That however, results in inflation and if there is anything worse then recession it is a recession combined with inflation. That’s a nightmare scenario where not only are people losing jobs but it is combined with even items of basic sustenance becoming increasingly unaffordable.
It doesn’t have to be that way of course. For instance if the hypothetical family could find some way to increase its income then with a little belt tightening it may well be able to maintain living standards and manage loan repayments at the same time. But income levels have the potential to increase only if the economy is on the growth path. For the last two decades economists have thought that this growth ought to be axiomatic, given the advent of the internet (and the consequential expansion of the marketplace due to e-commerce) and productivity gains from new technologies. Unfortunately, these economists were right and wrong at the same time. They were right in that the productivity did improve year on year, the markets did expand and the world had an unprecedented run of prosperity. However, what everyone missed is that the increase in debt and deficits was higher than the increase in productivity. To understand this let us return to the example of our household. We know that if the family can increase income they could maintain their lifestyle and also pay down their debt. But what if their debt repayment obligations kept increasing and also increased faster than their household income? At some point, something has to give.
If you are wondering why the yanks got themselves into this lockjam, the cause is evident to the silent observer. One thing you notice very quickly when you are in North America is that people have no personal liquidity. Spending money and loose cash are rare while a rectangular piece of plastic is the lifeline. Credit cards were meant to ease the need to carry around bundles of cash and were predicated on the belief that most responsible people will settle their bills regularly. However, at some point it became a way for Americans to spend more than they could afford. Few can resist buying a good time by mortgaging future (and sometimes anticipated but uncertain) income. And if this is part of the national character then blame the buffoons running the country. Successive administrations exhorted people to go out and shop in the simplistic belief that building demand is the right way to grow the economy. But what if the demand is based on unsustainable borrowings? Well, then what we will have is a bubble and like all bubbles, it must burst one day. And it has.
Sunday, February 15, 2009
Sunday, November 30, 2008
THE WHODUNNIT
Now that the ordeal is over, the attention of the media and the public has turned to the inevitable question of who is responsible. Apart from the politicians who deserve condemnation, all fingers are once again pointing to Pakistan and it is not difficult to fathom why.
The long standing sibling rivalry over a piece of coveted territory has been well documented by historians. However, it is no secret that ever since India played a major role in the creation of Bangladesh, Pakistan has harbored the desire to dismember this country. Successive Pakistani administrations have hovered between blatant moral and material support for cross border terrorism to turning a blind eye to the issue. However, it is a truism that if you rear a monster it will someday turn around and bite you in the backside. Bin Laden was a part of the guerilla warfare against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan which the US had funded and armed. Bindranwale was propped up by the Congress and Mrs. Gandhi. And so also, the Pakistani establishment, at some point down the road lost control over the extremist elements it had itself nurtured. This happened primarily because of 9/11. Previously, the Indian security agencies had cried themselves hoarse about the dangers of cross-border terrorism sponsored by Pakistan, but the US took no notice until it realized that the same radical elements were also a threat to Western society. Suddenly, Pakistan had to choose. You were either with George W. Bush or against George W. Bush. General Musharraf received a phone call laying down this hobson’s choice and decided to crack down on radical elements which his own military and secret service had helped establish. Unfortunately, in a delicious irony of history, he found that he no longer had control over their actions since rogue elements in his own secret service were sympathetic to their cause and he himself became a target of terrorism culminating in the assassination of proponents of democracy like Mrs. Bhutto and the destruction of the Marriott Hotel. And now these same radicals have set new standards of cold blooded murder in Bombay. Little wonder then that most Indians are now baying for Pakistani blood.
Indeed, we Indians have every reason to be furious. These were not ragamuffin uneducated and misguided young men but highly trained and ruthless animals. In which neighboring country are there training camps for armed militia which even the western intelligence agencies are well aware of? Cell phone records and GPS logs clearly prove the link to violent groups based in Pakistan. And after all, it is not too long ago that the Pakistani state media continuously referred to these eunuchs as “jehadis” – indicating holy war and thereby conferring on them a sort of recognition and status which itself is despicable. What emotion other than contempt can you express for a nation which allows genocidal men like Masood to roam free in its streets?
Nevertheless, we cannot ignore the signs that the recent terrorism on Pakistani soil may indeed have caused the emergence of a delicate balance between the Government of Pakistan which is now a fledgling democracy and the militant forces within its ranks. If one has to win this battle against senseless violence it has to start with the realization that it is not necessarily a war between nations and all the people. It does not take too much intelligence to understand that a large majority of people in all countries and across all religions do not subscribe to a barbaric philosophy. Therefore, even though the initial anger and bitterness is completely understandable, we must rise above the base instinct of vengeance and realize that the best way to ensure that 26/11 never happens again is to cut across national and religious boundaries and work with the right thinking segments in all societies and all countries. The great pity is that collective public anger in India is likely to make Indian politicians rattle some sabers and if the geopolitical situation in the sub-continent deteriorates it will only help the terrorists and extremists in their cause.
At a time when there is a wringing of hands and a call to “do something” there is indeed a lot that can be done but that does not include pandering to the irrational sentiment and allowing the relationship with Pakistan to once again deteriorate. Instead, its time for India to seize the initiative and collaborate with the Pakistani Government by asking it to hunt down the barbarians who are clearly on Pakistani soil and hand them over to us to face trial under our judicial system. Make no mistake. This is not to say we should not do anything. The important thing is to do that which is going to yield results. Instead of the Indian air force unilaterally “taking out” terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan – a move which can be seen as an attack on Pakistan’s sovereignty - India should furnish to Pakistan under the full glare of the global community the necessary evidence and demand action from the Pakistani authorities themselves. This has been done before as well but this time the terrorists have crossed a line which has shocked the world and unwittingly they may have created a situation which if handled well could result in their own elimination. India to-day has earned the goodwill of the whole world in the same way that America had the sympathy and support of the world after 9/11. This goodwill should not be squandered like the US did by going into Iraq, but instead turned to our advantage by demanding that the US and the global community ensure that not just the group directly responsible for this dastardly crime but also all militants in Pakistan wanted in India for similar incidents, such as Masood, are apprehended and handed over.
It is likely of course that the Pakistan establishment for reasons of its own existence may refuse to co-operate. But then that country would be exposed for what it stands for and its role in perpetuating global terrorism would be apparent to all. That itself would be a vindication of sorts for India and its people who have been victims of barbarism in modern times.
And while the immediate challenge is to harness the cold anger we are beginning to see in the streets, there is also a need for a long-term plan to battle terrorism. This does not mean just an overhaul of the security apparatus. The time has now come for global action. And once again it is only the realization that terrorism has no nationality or religion which will make this possible. Once this is understood, the anger will be directed against the radical elements themselves and not the nation in which they were born or live or the religion they purport to follow.
Further, global action can become a reality only if there is an international framework which addresses some key questions. Just like the Geneva treaty on warfare, we need a new treaty which sets out acceptable norms in a terrorism related incident. For instance, if there is an attack on foreign nationals which Government should have the right to take action? It’s a different world out there and the old rules of sovereignty may need to be debated and reconsidered. After all once you accept that we are all in it together, is there anything wrong in asking the foreign agency to step in and see what best it can do for its own nationals? Apart from developing norms on this and many such similar issues which can form the basis of an international treaty, it is important that for global action to be effective there must be a proper framework for consideration of evidence and joint action if necessary. Many a times evidence furnished by India has been pooh-pooed even by the Western countries for their own self serving interests. The perverse logic is that if they give recognition to the complicity of Pakistani groups then tensions between the two countries will increase and Pakistan will divert its forces from its western borders to face India and this will diminish its efforts on the Afghan border which is where the US wants Pakistan’s assistance. While this is one more reason for India to exercise restrain in the short term, such narrow interests can be addressed only within the framework of an international treaty.
As the Kyoto protocol and the Doha rounds on trade negotiations have shown, negotiating a fair treaty will prove to be an enormous diplomatic challenge. However, there are times in history when events create a collective mood where a lot can be achieved. The brutality of the Bombay attacks is one such time. Unfortunately, India does not have the leadership to seize the initiative and do what needs to be done. If we the patriotic citizens of India want to do something then let us work to spread this idea whose time has come instead of expressing impotent anger before life once again grabs us by the throat come Monday morning.
The long standing sibling rivalry over a piece of coveted territory has been well documented by historians. However, it is no secret that ever since India played a major role in the creation of Bangladesh, Pakistan has harbored the desire to dismember this country. Successive Pakistani administrations have hovered between blatant moral and material support for cross border terrorism to turning a blind eye to the issue. However, it is a truism that if you rear a monster it will someday turn around and bite you in the backside. Bin Laden was a part of the guerilla warfare against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan which the US had funded and armed. Bindranwale was propped up by the Congress and Mrs. Gandhi. And so also, the Pakistani establishment, at some point down the road lost control over the extremist elements it had itself nurtured. This happened primarily because of 9/11. Previously, the Indian security agencies had cried themselves hoarse about the dangers of cross-border terrorism sponsored by Pakistan, but the US took no notice until it realized that the same radical elements were also a threat to Western society. Suddenly, Pakistan had to choose. You were either with George W. Bush or against George W. Bush. General Musharraf received a phone call laying down this hobson’s choice and decided to crack down on radical elements which his own military and secret service had helped establish. Unfortunately, in a delicious irony of history, he found that he no longer had control over their actions since rogue elements in his own secret service were sympathetic to their cause and he himself became a target of terrorism culminating in the assassination of proponents of democracy like Mrs. Bhutto and the destruction of the Marriott Hotel. And now these same radicals have set new standards of cold blooded murder in Bombay. Little wonder then that most Indians are now baying for Pakistani blood.
Indeed, we Indians have every reason to be furious. These were not ragamuffin uneducated and misguided young men but highly trained and ruthless animals. In which neighboring country are there training camps for armed militia which even the western intelligence agencies are well aware of? Cell phone records and GPS logs clearly prove the link to violent groups based in Pakistan. And after all, it is not too long ago that the Pakistani state media continuously referred to these eunuchs as “jehadis” – indicating holy war and thereby conferring on them a sort of recognition and status which itself is despicable. What emotion other than contempt can you express for a nation which allows genocidal men like Masood to roam free in its streets?
Nevertheless, we cannot ignore the signs that the recent terrorism on Pakistani soil may indeed have caused the emergence of a delicate balance between the Government of Pakistan which is now a fledgling democracy and the militant forces within its ranks. If one has to win this battle against senseless violence it has to start with the realization that it is not necessarily a war between nations and all the people. It does not take too much intelligence to understand that a large majority of people in all countries and across all religions do not subscribe to a barbaric philosophy. Therefore, even though the initial anger and bitterness is completely understandable, we must rise above the base instinct of vengeance and realize that the best way to ensure that 26/11 never happens again is to cut across national and religious boundaries and work with the right thinking segments in all societies and all countries. The great pity is that collective public anger in India is likely to make Indian politicians rattle some sabers and if the geopolitical situation in the sub-continent deteriorates it will only help the terrorists and extremists in their cause.
At a time when there is a wringing of hands and a call to “do something” there is indeed a lot that can be done but that does not include pandering to the irrational sentiment and allowing the relationship with Pakistan to once again deteriorate. Instead, its time for India to seize the initiative and collaborate with the Pakistani Government by asking it to hunt down the barbarians who are clearly on Pakistani soil and hand them over to us to face trial under our judicial system. Make no mistake. This is not to say we should not do anything. The important thing is to do that which is going to yield results. Instead of the Indian air force unilaterally “taking out” terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan – a move which can be seen as an attack on Pakistan’s sovereignty - India should furnish to Pakistan under the full glare of the global community the necessary evidence and demand action from the Pakistani authorities themselves. This has been done before as well but this time the terrorists have crossed a line which has shocked the world and unwittingly they may have created a situation which if handled well could result in their own elimination. India to-day has earned the goodwill of the whole world in the same way that America had the sympathy and support of the world after 9/11. This goodwill should not be squandered like the US did by going into Iraq, but instead turned to our advantage by demanding that the US and the global community ensure that not just the group directly responsible for this dastardly crime but also all militants in Pakistan wanted in India for similar incidents, such as Masood, are apprehended and handed over.
It is likely of course that the Pakistan establishment for reasons of its own existence may refuse to co-operate. But then that country would be exposed for what it stands for and its role in perpetuating global terrorism would be apparent to all. That itself would be a vindication of sorts for India and its people who have been victims of barbarism in modern times.
And while the immediate challenge is to harness the cold anger we are beginning to see in the streets, there is also a need for a long-term plan to battle terrorism. This does not mean just an overhaul of the security apparatus. The time has now come for global action. And once again it is only the realization that terrorism has no nationality or religion which will make this possible. Once this is understood, the anger will be directed against the radical elements themselves and not the nation in which they were born or live or the religion they purport to follow.
Further, global action can become a reality only if there is an international framework which addresses some key questions. Just like the Geneva treaty on warfare, we need a new treaty which sets out acceptable norms in a terrorism related incident. For instance, if there is an attack on foreign nationals which Government should have the right to take action? It’s a different world out there and the old rules of sovereignty may need to be debated and reconsidered. After all once you accept that we are all in it together, is there anything wrong in asking the foreign agency to step in and see what best it can do for its own nationals? Apart from developing norms on this and many such similar issues which can form the basis of an international treaty, it is important that for global action to be effective there must be a proper framework for consideration of evidence and joint action if necessary. Many a times evidence furnished by India has been pooh-pooed even by the Western countries for their own self serving interests. The perverse logic is that if they give recognition to the complicity of Pakistani groups then tensions between the two countries will increase and Pakistan will divert its forces from its western borders to face India and this will diminish its efforts on the Afghan border which is where the US wants Pakistan’s assistance. While this is one more reason for India to exercise restrain in the short term, such narrow interests can be addressed only within the framework of an international treaty.
As the Kyoto protocol and the Doha rounds on trade negotiations have shown, negotiating a fair treaty will prove to be an enormous diplomatic challenge. However, there are times in history when events create a collective mood where a lot can be achieved. The brutality of the Bombay attacks is one such time. Unfortunately, India does not have the leadership to seize the initiative and do what needs to be done. If we the patriotic citizens of India want to do something then let us work to spread this idea whose time has come instead of expressing impotent anger before life once again grabs us by the throat come Monday morning.
Friday, November 28, 2008
FRONTLINE
Such is the nature of terrorism that it could affect anyone at all and completely without warning. Well, during the last 24 hours global terrorism is now that much more close to home. Not just on the hi-def images in our living rooms. It is now deeply ingrained in neighborhoods most familiar, mingled forever with childhood and adolescent memories.
The Leopold Café was yet another Irani restaurant before its staid image was transformed to that of a happening hang out joint for the young and funky. Many a sultry Bombay evening was spent here sipping iced tea, trying to make sense of the colorful frescoes and wondering whether the long-haired hippie on the next table had been to Woodstock. Now it lies desolate in a pool of blood, easy prey to a wide sweep of a semi-automatic weapon and a few lobbed grenades.
Bade Mian was a man with a skull cap and a white pointy beard, in the lane behind the Taj hotel, twirling skewers of meat on an open charcoal grill with practiced ease. Each Sunday morning, I would be calling friends to see who would welcome the privilege of accompanying me that evening on a slow trot from the bus route number 123 to Bade Mian’s for two plates of “kalegis” & one of “botis”, all for the sum of rupees seven. Even in those early days, Bade Mian was beginning to acquire the reputation of a gourmet chef. I swore by his ability to make otherwise well mannered boys lick their fingers. Until one day a friend mischievously suggested that Bade Mian used dog meat which is why it was so delicious. The horrifying thought that I may have consumed a Pomeranian like my own was enough to put me off red meat altogether. Some years later, I learnt that Bade Mian had a restaurant of his own at the same place – the lane behind the Taj. And today, 8 kgs of RDX was reportedly found at the restaurant.
Until my friend spoiled my appetite, the only deterrent to Bade Mian was the notion that it was like going to school on a Sunday. That’s because a lane adjacent to Bade Mian was where I turned up each day for school. And which is why we had “PT” lessons on the pavements of Apollo Bunder. Each time, I would gaze at the grey stone structure of the Taj in complete awe and wonder how many kings and queens had graced its historic ballrooms. I dreamt someday of being wealthy enough to be married at the Taj but thought it was a pipe dream. So when I could finally afford to pay a kings ransom for fish and chips at the Sea Lounge, I knew I had arrived.
The third table from the entrance at the Sea Lounge was the venue of my first date. I scampered there early to ensure that we got a table by the window which afforded a wonderful view of the ocean fading away into a distant horizon. I thought it would be a clincher with her but instead it turned out that she was like a bear with a sore head because of not being fetched from her doorstep even if it meant that we would have to sit on an uncomfortable sofa and miss the view! I did not understand women then and I don’t understand women now.
In later years I graduated from the Sea Lounge to the most popular Chinese restaurant and then the best French food place in the country. However, it was the Oberoi which was my favorite destination when visiting the city where I grew up. Most of the staff at the Oberoi remember my name and have got to learn my habits and idiosyncrasies. It is the Oberoi where I had my very first client lunch. And it is at the Oberoi where I bumped into my childhood love recently. And now it is the Oberoi which will carry the burden of being the most gruesome terrorist catastrophe in India’s history.
The part of South Bombay from the Taj, Bade Mian, Leopold Café and the Oberoi was not most of my youth in Bombay. It was all of it. And now this same five square kilometer patch is the frontline in India’s battle against global terrorism. In a lot of ways, Bombay and the world has changed for ever these past 24 hours.
The Leopold Café was yet another Irani restaurant before its staid image was transformed to that of a happening hang out joint for the young and funky. Many a sultry Bombay evening was spent here sipping iced tea, trying to make sense of the colorful frescoes and wondering whether the long-haired hippie on the next table had been to Woodstock. Now it lies desolate in a pool of blood, easy prey to a wide sweep of a semi-automatic weapon and a few lobbed grenades.
Bade Mian was a man with a skull cap and a white pointy beard, in the lane behind the Taj hotel, twirling skewers of meat on an open charcoal grill with practiced ease. Each Sunday morning, I would be calling friends to see who would welcome the privilege of accompanying me that evening on a slow trot from the bus route number 123 to Bade Mian’s for two plates of “kalegis” & one of “botis”, all for the sum of rupees seven. Even in those early days, Bade Mian was beginning to acquire the reputation of a gourmet chef. I swore by his ability to make otherwise well mannered boys lick their fingers. Until one day a friend mischievously suggested that Bade Mian used dog meat which is why it was so delicious. The horrifying thought that I may have consumed a Pomeranian like my own was enough to put me off red meat altogether. Some years later, I learnt that Bade Mian had a restaurant of his own at the same place – the lane behind the Taj. And today, 8 kgs of RDX was reportedly found at the restaurant.
Until my friend spoiled my appetite, the only deterrent to Bade Mian was the notion that it was like going to school on a Sunday. That’s because a lane adjacent to Bade Mian was where I turned up each day for school. And which is why we had “PT” lessons on the pavements of Apollo Bunder. Each time, I would gaze at the grey stone structure of the Taj in complete awe and wonder how many kings and queens had graced its historic ballrooms. I dreamt someday of being wealthy enough to be married at the Taj but thought it was a pipe dream. So when I could finally afford to pay a kings ransom for fish and chips at the Sea Lounge, I knew I had arrived.
The third table from the entrance at the Sea Lounge was the venue of my first date. I scampered there early to ensure that we got a table by the window which afforded a wonderful view of the ocean fading away into a distant horizon. I thought it would be a clincher with her but instead it turned out that she was like a bear with a sore head because of not being fetched from her doorstep even if it meant that we would have to sit on an uncomfortable sofa and miss the view! I did not understand women then and I don’t understand women now.
In later years I graduated from the Sea Lounge to the most popular Chinese restaurant and then the best French food place in the country. However, it was the Oberoi which was my favorite destination when visiting the city where I grew up. Most of the staff at the Oberoi remember my name and have got to learn my habits and idiosyncrasies. It is the Oberoi where I had my very first client lunch. And it is at the Oberoi where I bumped into my childhood love recently. And now it is the Oberoi which will carry the burden of being the most gruesome terrorist catastrophe in India’s history.
The part of South Bombay from the Taj, Bade Mian, Leopold Café and the Oberoi was not most of my youth in Bombay. It was all of it. And now this same five square kilometer patch is the frontline in India’s battle against global terrorism. In a lot of ways, Bombay and the world has changed for ever these past 24 hours.
Monday, October 27, 2008
The Vote & Pray Choice
Make no mistake. John McCain would make a great President. Nothing is more admirable in a politician then the willingness to stand up and be counted for what he or she believes is the right thing to do. While the Republican Party’s manifesto has always been marred by its right wing social agenda and cowboy approach to geopolitics, McCain emerges as a pragmatic fiscal conservative with a track record of standing up to his own party on issues driven by lunatic fringes within, including the neocons and Bush.
Compare that to his opponent who has no resume to boast of and appears out of sorts on substantive issues when he does not have his speech writers backing him up. Rhetoric is no substitute for logic and Obama has on countless occasions betrayed a fundamental lack of understanding of some of the problems facing his country and the world. For example, his assertion that he will talk to Iran with no pre-conditions is churlish. It may result in some photo ops and an academic debate with that country’s leader on whether the holocaust actually happened but will not stop him funding of the Hizbullah and may even embolden his blatant disregard for international opinion. Such a course of action may just prove to be as dangerous as Bush’s “good cop will fix the bad guy” policy.
Again, on the economy, Obama is misguidedly left of centre. Both have spelled out their proposals in policy statements and it is clear that while Obama will cut taxes for middle class America, McCain proposes tax cuts for corporate America. So will somebody now move the quality of the debate up by a notch or two? Obama’s proposals will of course, be more popular. Unfortunately, all tax cuts are not necessarily good for the economy. It is only those targeted tax incentives which have the potential to encourage investments and generate jobs which are desirable. For instance, a tax break linked to investments made or the creation of research facilities or infrastructure results in productive use of the tax dollar. Private corporations use the tax dollars more efficiently so rather than the government taking it away and then diverting the money in an inefficient manner it is better to let companies retain their earnings and put the same tax dollars to more productive use. On the other hand, Obama’s tax breaks which will result in a US $3,000 saving for several American households will not achieve much. For instance if this gift from the Obama administration is diverted to the purchase of consumer electronics which will be made in Taiwan or China, Uncle Sam will contribute to generating more income in these countries perpetuating the economic crisis in same way that it was created. (For a more detailed analysis of the economic crisis see the next blog on Monday morning).
Given the McCain camp’s inability to articulate this to the average American voter, it is quite likely that we will see a sweeping mandate for the democrats on November 4. Ordinarily, this would rank as a disaster of sorts, leaving one to only hope that if Obama’s politics are for simple minded then at least his policies once in the saddle are pragmatic without being mired in ideological constrains of whatever hue.
So why then, have I decided that given a choice, Obama is the candidate that America should elect as President? The answer is that we are not living in ordinary times. The ongoing economic meltdown needs a big fix. The answer does not lie in small minded policy tinkering and as the most able Treasury Secretary is discovering, the normal tools of economic manipulation at his disposal are insufficient. The reason for this is that there is a very close relationship between macro economics and behavioral economics. Indeed, it is not far fetched to say that macro economics is only the symptom of collective group psychology. As scary as it may sound, it is necessary to recognize the fact that our prosperity as well as that of future generations is dependant on the principles of mob psychology rather than interest rates, inflation or the stock market index. Indeed, these indicators are only the result of what is called as “collective sentiment.” Consider the following. When the sentiment was positive people came to the party thinking it would never end. Even Gordon Brown, the present British Prime Minister stood up in Parliament and said that the era of boom and bust cycles had ended. The iconic Alan Greenspan framed his progressive interest cuts on this very belief. And even those with doctorates in economics invested heavily in the stock markets believing that economic prosperity had reached a new paradigm due to methods of increasing productivity which were unknown at the time that economic cycles were invented. These are symptomatic of mass hysteria leading to fatal lack of recognition of the bubble that was developing. So small wonder that when it burst it took everyone by surprise. It was something which they never thought would happen. Now the shock of it all has created exactly the opposite mindset. Just like the inebriated at a late night party, the world has woken up the next morning, not just with a hangover but with a feeling that the end is near. People are now predicting Armageddon. Just as previously the unbridled optimism bred reckless economics, the present pessimism is now resulting in a global siege mentality. The need of the hour is therefore for someone to restore some semblance of confidence and normality so that rationality will return to the global market place. And it has to all start where it began – the United States of America! An aging McCain with an old world mindset does not have it in him to reverse the psyche of the American people. An inspirational Obama who has created a movement out of a political opportunity with his oratorical skills, is the right man to inspire, lead and restore confidence in the same manner as Churchill led a defeated Britain out of the mess at Dunkirk to ultimate victory over Nazi Germany. History has this knack of throwing up men with the ability to turn the collective psyche of a nation, at a time when it is needed the most.
Ironically, Obama is likely to take the White House for all the wrong reasons – whether it is the blacks voting for “one ‘o us” or the intellectually feeble who believe his promise to fix health care, restore international understanding and co-operation, save the country from economic ruin and reduce their tax bill, all at the same time. Unfortunately for McCain, once elected Obama is the only guy with the potential to inject the adrenalin into the American psyche to lead his electorate to hope and start believing in themselves once again. And it is this turn of sentiment which will lead to the stabilization of the economy and not any amount of tinkering which his Treasury Secretary will do. Make no mistake. This is America. The most free and open society in the world. The place where innovation thrives and the country which has not only given the world every modern tool at its disposal, including the internet, but has also shaped society across the globe – a fact that attracts more resentment then appreciation. Such an environment can flounder only if its people lose their self confidence. And Obama’s role in history may just be to reverse that sad trend. He may still mess it up by trying to play God and finding that he does’nt have a magic wand after all. But as long as he presents his carefully cultivated calm and composed image and his speech writer does not retire, there is hope for the future.
Which is why the only thing to do for the American people is to vote for the Obama ticket and pray that he chooses the right set of advisors.
Compare that to his opponent who has no resume to boast of and appears out of sorts on substantive issues when he does not have his speech writers backing him up. Rhetoric is no substitute for logic and Obama has on countless occasions betrayed a fundamental lack of understanding of some of the problems facing his country and the world. For example, his assertion that he will talk to Iran with no pre-conditions is churlish. It may result in some photo ops and an academic debate with that country’s leader on whether the holocaust actually happened but will not stop him funding of the Hizbullah and may even embolden his blatant disregard for international opinion. Such a course of action may just prove to be as dangerous as Bush’s “good cop will fix the bad guy” policy.
Again, on the economy, Obama is misguidedly left of centre. Both have spelled out their proposals in policy statements and it is clear that while Obama will cut taxes for middle class America, McCain proposes tax cuts for corporate America. So will somebody now move the quality of the debate up by a notch or two? Obama’s proposals will of course, be more popular. Unfortunately, all tax cuts are not necessarily good for the economy. It is only those targeted tax incentives which have the potential to encourage investments and generate jobs which are desirable. For instance, a tax break linked to investments made or the creation of research facilities or infrastructure results in productive use of the tax dollar. Private corporations use the tax dollars more efficiently so rather than the government taking it away and then diverting the money in an inefficient manner it is better to let companies retain their earnings and put the same tax dollars to more productive use. On the other hand, Obama’s tax breaks which will result in a US $3,000 saving for several American households will not achieve much. For instance if this gift from the Obama administration is diverted to the purchase of consumer electronics which will be made in Taiwan or China, Uncle Sam will contribute to generating more income in these countries perpetuating the economic crisis in same way that it was created. (For a more detailed analysis of the economic crisis see the next blog on Monday morning).
Given the McCain camp’s inability to articulate this to the average American voter, it is quite likely that we will see a sweeping mandate for the democrats on November 4. Ordinarily, this would rank as a disaster of sorts, leaving one to only hope that if Obama’s politics are for simple minded then at least his policies once in the saddle are pragmatic without being mired in ideological constrains of whatever hue.
So why then, have I decided that given a choice, Obama is the candidate that America should elect as President? The answer is that we are not living in ordinary times. The ongoing economic meltdown needs a big fix. The answer does not lie in small minded policy tinkering and as the most able Treasury Secretary is discovering, the normal tools of economic manipulation at his disposal are insufficient. The reason for this is that there is a very close relationship between macro economics and behavioral economics. Indeed, it is not far fetched to say that macro economics is only the symptom of collective group psychology. As scary as it may sound, it is necessary to recognize the fact that our prosperity as well as that of future generations is dependant on the principles of mob psychology rather than interest rates, inflation or the stock market index. Indeed, these indicators are only the result of what is called as “collective sentiment.” Consider the following. When the sentiment was positive people came to the party thinking it would never end. Even Gordon Brown, the present British Prime Minister stood up in Parliament and said that the era of boom and bust cycles had ended. The iconic Alan Greenspan framed his progressive interest cuts on this very belief. And even those with doctorates in economics invested heavily in the stock markets believing that economic prosperity had reached a new paradigm due to methods of increasing productivity which were unknown at the time that economic cycles were invented. These are symptomatic of mass hysteria leading to fatal lack of recognition of the bubble that was developing. So small wonder that when it burst it took everyone by surprise. It was something which they never thought would happen. Now the shock of it all has created exactly the opposite mindset. Just like the inebriated at a late night party, the world has woken up the next morning, not just with a hangover but with a feeling that the end is near. People are now predicting Armageddon. Just as previously the unbridled optimism bred reckless economics, the present pessimism is now resulting in a global siege mentality. The need of the hour is therefore for someone to restore some semblance of confidence and normality so that rationality will return to the global market place. And it has to all start where it began – the United States of America! An aging McCain with an old world mindset does not have it in him to reverse the psyche of the American people. An inspirational Obama who has created a movement out of a political opportunity with his oratorical skills, is the right man to inspire, lead and restore confidence in the same manner as Churchill led a defeated Britain out of the mess at Dunkirk to ultimate victory over Nazi Germany. History has this knack of throwing up men with the ability to turn the collective psyche of a nation, at a time when it is needed the most.
Ironically, Obama is likely to take the White House for all the wrong reasons – whether it is the blacks voting for “one ‘o us” or the intellectually feeble who believe his promise to fix health care, restore international understanding and co-operation, save the country from economic ruin and reduce their tax bill, all at the same time. Unfortunately for McCain, once elected Obama is the only guy with the potential to inject the adrenalin into the American psyche to lead his electorate to hope and start believing in themselves once again. And it is this turn of sentiment which will lead to the stabilization of the economy and not any amount of tinkering which his Treasury Secretary will do. Make no mistake. This is America. The most free and open society in the world. The place where innovation thrives and the country which has not only given the world every modern tool at its disposal, including the internet, but has also shaped society across the globe – a fact that attracts more resentment then appreciation. Such an environment can flounder only if its people lose their self confidence. And Obama’s role in history may just be to reverse that sad trend. He may still mess it up by trying to play God and finding that he does’nt have a magic wand after all. But as long as he presents his carefully cultivated calm and composed image and his speech writer does not retire, there is hope for the future.
Which is why the only thing to do for the American people is to vote for the Obama ticket and pray that he chooses the right set of advisors.
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Foul Temptations
How can anyone continuously reel from life’s blows and not stumble? The weathered soul who emerges from the ashes of betrayal must never again harbour any desire. Every storm must leave an indelible mark on the tree trunk no matter how proud and tall. And all men must regain their sanity in their own company and not of those who show no mercy. Kill the beat of desire before it consumes thee for thou was not born to love.
Friends, Indians, Canadians, lend me your ears. If the world is your oyster what happens when the pearl leaves never to return? Hear ye, hear ye. Love is a four letter word (cant you read you twerp?). Keep the heart in safe refuge away from foul temptations. Hear ye, hear ye. Sow thy seed in the vile field of pubic hair and keep on the relentless search for other pastures, so that when the land is fallow you may not wither from the hunger born of misplaced affection.
Friends, Indians, Canadians, lend me your ears. If the world is your oyster what happens when the pearl leaves never to return? Hear ye, hear ye. Love is a four letter word (cant you read you twerp?). Keep the heart in safe refuge away from foul temptations. Hear ye, hear ye. Sow thy seed in the vile field of pubic hair and keep on the relentless search for other pastures, so that when the land is fallow you may not wither from the hunger born of misplaced affection.
Thursday, May 1, 2008
Ode to Hari Prasad
His name:
Hari Prasad,
His claim to fame:
Scares the security guard
Hari Prasad the doggy baa
Is found at Rajeev’s gate
He lost his ma,
But is keenly looking for his mate
Hari Prasad the street mongrel
Sits around and bays at the moon
And wonders what the stars fortell
Will his soul mate appear soon?
Hari Prasad needs to bathe in a tub
But smelling like pooh is so comfy
Exchanging a lick for a tummy rub
The smell won’t bother that human goofy
Hari Prasad knows how to please all
Women because his habits are like their men
Men because only a dog responds to their call
Before they count from one to ten
Hari Prasad,
His claim to fame:
Scares the security guard
Hari Prasad the doggy baa
Is found at Rajeev’s gate
He lost his ma,
But is keenly looking for his mate
Hari Prasad the street mongrel
Sits around and bays at the moon
And wonders what the stars fortell
Will his soul mate appear soon?
Hari Prasad needs to bathe in a tub
But smelling like pooh is so comfy
Exchanging a lick for a tummy rub
The smell won’t bother that human goofy
Hari Prasad knows how to please all
Women because his habits are like their men
Men because only a dog responds to their call
Before they count from one to ten
The Racist Whistle Blowers
The Racist Whistle Blowers
Make no mistake about it. Cricket is a great game and racism has no place in it. Nor does racism have a place in any aspect of modern day life. Of course you agree with this you little twerp. Who in their right minds would not agree with something as banal as that? To say that racism is a strict "no-no" is an universal truism. A tautology. A given. A "why do we even need to spell it out" kinda thing.
Here's why.
Trouble is there is as yet no consensus on precisely what constitutes racism. Take away the most covert acts of discrimination or abuse with racial undertones and you are left with a wide range of incidents which could or could not be interpreted as racism. Fact of the matter is that there are huge cultural differences in the manner in which racism is understood. And the incident in the Sydney test was a disaster waiting to happen simply because we refuse to address this issue and prefer to be coy and not talk about it at all rather than reach a better understanding of these cultural differences. To me it almost seems as if being politically correct and non-controversial is more important than reaching the right conclusion.
The Canadians of course are the most ridiculously politically correct of them all. We Indians will rib each other and giggle and nudge elbows at the silliest of "sardar" jokes. And everyone will guffaw at the caricature of the old Parsi who (for heavens sake!) features regularly on TV commercials!! Including the Parsis themselves! We Indians have a sense of humour above everything else. And the ability to laugh at ourselves is the biggest gift we have since it enables us to recognise our differences and get to like them rather than pretending that we are all the same. But heavens forbid if someone in Canada cracks a Polish joke. But then Canadians are very nice people and it’s a reputation they intend to keep. And I have to say I have never faced any kind of racial discrimination in Canada.
But what that does not help is the issues that our cricket team is facing in Australia. Yes, so our off spinner Harbhajan ("Bhajji") Singh called the only black Aussie player on the field a "monkey". All right. Perhaps personally offensive but does it have racial connotations?
To all except those who have scrambled eggs for brains, calling someone a monkey is not racial abuse. It may be abuse (though everyone knows that it is common place for players - especially the Aussies - to use even four letter words in the heat of the moment) but what is it about our simian ancestors that could be associated with racial abuse? If you think about it, is it not the whistle blowers themselves who are in their own minds associating a black player with a monkey? Why can't someone who is white or brown (or black or blue) be synonymous with a monkey? And why would the colour of Andrew Symond's skin be the only obvious association with a monkey rather than any other characteristic? And if Bhajji had used any other epitaph - for example "elephant" - would that not have been plain vanilla abusive rather than racial abuse? So if "monkey" is racial and "elephant' is not then the racism is in the minds of the accusers since it is they who at some sub-conscious level associate monkeys with black people.
Which brings us to MY BIG POINT about racism. It’s just not what you say or how you say it that matters. It’s what you actually think which is important. And if we do not address this, then racism is going to be a big problem because the subtle brand of racism will continue unabated. And it’s you & I who will be responsible since we refuse to address it. Pretending that it does not exist simply because it is not expressed is the problem. Which is why the controversy in Sydney was something which was inevitable. Pity it soiled the fair name of the great game of cricket.
Make no mistake about it. Cricket is a great game and racism has no place in it. Nor does racism have a place in any aspect of modern day life. Of course you agree with this you little twerp. Who in their right minds would not agree with something as banal as that? To say that racism is a strict "no-no" is an universal truism. A tautology. A given. A "why do we even need to spell it out" kinda thing.
Here's why.
Trouble is there is as yet no consensus on precisely what constitutes racism. Take away the most covert acts of discrimination or abuse with racial undertones and you are left with a wide range of incidents which could or could not be interpreted as racism. Fact of the matter is that there are huge cultural differences in the manner in which racism is understood. And the incident in the Sydney test was a disaster waiting to happen simply because we refuse to address this issue and prefer to be coy and not talk about it at all rather than reach a better understanding of these cultural differences. To me it almost seems as if being politically correct and non-controversial is more important than reaching the right conclusion.
The Canadians of course are the most ridiculously politically correct of them all. We Indians will rib each other and giggle and nudge elbows at the silliest of "sardar" jokes. And everyone will guffaw at the caricature of the old Parsi who (for heavens sake!) features regularly on TV commercials!! Including the Parsis themselves! We Indians have a sense of humour above everything else. And the ability to laugh at ourselves is the biggest gift we have since it enables us to recognise our differences and get to like them rather than pretending that we are all the same. But heavens forbid if someone in Canada cracks a Polish joke. But then Canadians are very nice people and it’s a reputation they intend to keep. And I have to say I have never faced any kind of racial discrimination in Canada.
But what that does not help is the issues that our cricket team is facing in Australia. Yes, so our off spinner Harbhajan ("Bhajji") Singh called the only black Aussie player on the field a "monkey". All right. Perhaps personally offensive but does it have racial connotations?
To all except those who have scrambled eggs for brains, calling someone a monkey is not racial abuse. It may be abuse (though everyone knows that it is common place for players - especially the Aussies - to use even four letter words in the heat of the moment) but what is it about our simian ancestors that could be associated with racial abuse? If you think about it, is it not the whistle blowers themselves who are in their own minds associating a black player with a monkey? Why can't someone who is white or brown (or black or blue) be synonymous with a monkey? And why would the colour of Andrew Symond's skin be the only obvious association with a monkey rather than any other characteristic? And if Bhajji had used any other epitaph - for example "elephant" - would that not have been plain vanilla abusive rather than racial abuse? So if "monkey" is racial and "elephant' is not then the racism is in the minds of the accusers since it is they who at some sub-conscious level associate monkeys with black people.
Which brings us to MY BIG POINT about racism. It’s just not what you say or how you say it that matters. It’s what you actually think which is important. And if we do not address this, then racism is going to be a big problem because the subtle brand of racism will continue unabated. And it’s you & I who will be responsible since we refuse to address it. Pretending that it does not exist simply because it is not expressed is the problem. Which is why the controversy in Sydney was something which was inevitable. Pity it soiled the fair name of the great game of cricket.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
